Exposés de recherche

Collection Exposés de recherche

00:00:00 / 00:00:00
296 380

Extinction time for the weaker of two competing stochastic SIS logistic epidemics

By Malwina Luczak

Also appears in collections : Dynamics on random graphs and random maps / Dynamiques sur graphes et cartes aléatoires, Mathematics of Epidemics

We consider a simple stochastic model for the spread of a disease caused by two virus strains in a closed homogeneously mixing population of size N. In our model, the spread of each strain is described by the stochastic logistic SIS epidemic process in the absence of the other strain, and we assume that there is perfect cross-immunity between the two virus strains, that is, individuals infected by one strain are temporarily immune to re-infections and infections by the other strain. For the case where one strain has a strictly larger basic reproductive ratio than the other, and the stronger strain on its own is supercritical (that is, its basic reproductive ratio is larger than 1), we derive precise asymptotic results for the distribution of the time when the weaker strain disappears from the population, that is, its extinction time. We further consider what happens when the difference between the two reproductive ratios may tend to 0. This is joint work with Fabio Lopes.

Information about the video

Citation data

  • DOI 10.24350/CIRM.V.19229703
  • Cite this video Luczak, Malwina (24/10/2017). Extinction time for the weaker of two competing stochastic SIS logistic epidemics. CIRM. Audiovisual resource. DOI: 10.24350/CIRM.V.19229703
  • URL https://dx.doi.org/10.24350/CIRM.V.19229703

Domain(s)

Bibliography

  • Brightwell, G., House, T., & Luczak, M. (2017). Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic. <arXiv:1312.7449> - https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.7449

Last related questions on MathOverflow

You have to connect your Carmin.tv account with mathoverflow to add question

Ask a question on MathOverflow




Register

  • Bookmark videos
  • Add videos to see later &
    keep your browsing history
  • Comment with the scientific
    community
  • Get notification updates
    for your favorite subjects
Give feedback