Big data for health: a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis for predicting cardiac risk in Ticino and optimal defibrillators positioning
Also appears in collection : Jean-Morlet chair - Workshop: Young Bayesians and big data for social good / Chaire Jean-Morlet - Workshop : Jeunes Bayésiens et big data pour le bien social
The term ‘Public Access Defibrillation’ (PAD) is referred to programs based on the placement of Automated External Defibrillators (AED) in key locations along cities’ territory together with the development of a training plan for users (first responders). PAD programs are considered necessary since time for intervention in cases of sudden cardiac arrest outside of a medical environment (out-of-hospital cardiocirculatory arrest, OHCA) is strongly limited: survival potential decreases from a 67% baseline by 7 to 10% for each minute of delay in first defibrillation. However, it is widely recognized that current PAD performance is largely below its full potential. We provide a Bayesian spatio-temporal statistical model for predidicting OHCAs. Then we construct a risk map for Ticino, adjusted for demographic covariates, that explains and forecasts the spatial distribution of OHCAs, their temporal dynamics, and how the spatial distribution changes over time. The objective is twofold: to efficiently estimate, in each area of interest, the occurrence intensity of the OHCA event and to suggest a new optimized distribution of AEDs that accounts for population exposure to the geographic risk of OHCA occurrence and that includes both displacement of current devices and installation of new ones.
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