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Estimating parameters in the initial phase of an epidemic

By Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba

In recent years, new pandemic threats have become more and more frequent (SARS, bird flu, swine flu, Ebola, MERS, nCoV...) and analyses of data from the early spread more and more common and rapid. Particular interest is usually focused on the estimation of $ R_{0}$ and various methods, essentially based estimates of exponential growth rate and generation time distribution, have been proposed. Other parameters, such as fatality rate, are also of interest. In this talk, various sources of bias arising because observations are made in the early phase of spread will be discussed and also possible remedies proposed.

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Citation data

  • DOI 10.24350/CIRM.V.19612903
  • Cite this video Scalia Tomba Gianpaolo (2/19/20). Estimating parameters in the initial phase of an epidemic. CIRM. Audiovisual resource. DOI: 10.24350/CIRM.V.19612903
  • URL https://dx.doi.org/10.24350/CIRM.V.19612903



  • BRITTON, Tom et TOMBA, Gianpaolo Scalia. Estimation in emerging epidemics: biases and remedies Supplementary Information (SI). 2018. - https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.01688

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