00:00:00 / 00:00:00

Economic cycles: from descriptive statistics to formalization

By Michel Armatte

Appears in collection : Mathematical communities in the reconstruction after the Great War (1918-1928) / Les communautés mathématiques dans la reconstruction de l'après-guerre (1918-1928)

In order to explore the advances made on the economic issue of business cycles, I will present the work of the American economist Henry Ludwell Moore, who published four works on the question between the years 1911 and 1923. Within this framework, I will introduce several issues, such as the duality of empirical and theoretical approaches, the causal and semiological interpretations of the correlation, the notion of the ceteris paribus law in economics, the notion of non-probabilistic statistical mathematics, the development of the notion of the dynamic model at the end of the 1920s, the diverse analysis techniques of chronological series and their artefacts. I will also make reference to the contributions of other actors in this field.

Cournot Centre session devoted to the transformations that took place in mathematical economics during the interwar period.

Information about the video

Citation data

  • DOI 10.24350/CIRM.V.19475903
  • Cite this video Armatte, Michel (14/11/2018). Economic cycles: from descriptive statistics to formalization. CIRM. Audiovisual resource. DOI: 10.24350/CIRM.V.19475903
  • URL https://dx.doi.org/10.24350/CIRM.V.19475903

Bibliography

  • Armatte, M. (1992). Conjonctions, conjoncture et conjecture. Le, harometre, economiques. Histoire et Mesure, 7(1/2), 99-149 - https://www.jstor.org/stable/24565973
  • Armatte, M. Histoire du modèle linéraire : formes et usages en statistique et économétrie jusqu'en 1945. Thèse de doctorat. Paris: EHESS, 1995
  • Biddle, J. (1999). Statistical Economics, 1900-1950. History of Political Economy, 31(4), 607-651
  • Bureau international du travail (Ed.). (1924). Les baromètres économiques. Rapport présenté au Comité économique de la Société des Nations. Genève : BIT
  • Davis, H.T. (1941). The Analysis of economic time series. Bloomington, Ind. : The Principia Press - http://dspace.gipe.ac.in/xmlui/bitstream/handle/10973/27014/GIPE-022436.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y
  • Klein, J. (1997). Statistical visions in time: a history of time series analysis, 1662-1938. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
  • Le Gall, Ph. (1996). Une énigme de l’histoire de l’économétrie : l’étrange demande de lingots de fonte de Henry Moore (1914). Revue d’Economie Politique, 106(2), 293-318
  • March, L. (1912). La théorie des salaires à propos de l'ouvrage du professeur Ludwell Moore : Laws of wages. Journal de la société française de statistique, 53, 366-383 - https://eudml.org/doc/243463
  • Mirowski, Ph. (1990). Problems in the paternity of econometrics: Henry Ludwell Moore. History of Political Economy, 22(4), 587-609 - https://doi.org/10.1215/00182702-22-4-587
  • Morgan, M.S. (1990). The history of econometric ideas. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
  • Morgan, M.S. (1997). Searching for Casual Relations in Economic Statistics Reflections from History. In V.R. McKim, & S.P. Turner (Eds.), Causality in crisis?: statistical methods and the search for causal knowledge in the social sciences (pp. 47-80). Notre Dame, Ind. : University of Notre Dame Press
  • Rietz, H.L. (Ed.). (1924). Handbook of mathematical statistics. Boston : Houghton Mifflin
  • Schumpeter, J.A. (1939). Business cycles: a theoretical, historical and statistical analysis of the capitalist process. New York ; London : McGraw Hill
  • Stigler, G. (1954). The early history of empirical studies of consumer behavior. Journal of Political Economy, 62(2), 95-113 - https://doi.org/10.1086/257495
  • Stigler, G. (1962). Henry L. Moore and statistical economics. Econornetrica, 30(1), 1-21 - http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1911284
  • Teira—Serrano, D. (2006). A positivist tradition in early demand theory. Journal of Economic Methodologique, 13(1), 25-47 - https://doi.org/10.1080/13501780600566321
  • Wright, P. (1915). Moore's Economic Cycles. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 29(3), 631-641 - http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1885466

Last related questions on MathOverflow

You have to connect your Carmin.tv account with mathoverflow to add question

Ask a question on MathOverflow




Register

  • Bookmark videos
  • Add videos to see later &
    keep your browsing history
  • Comment with the scientific
    community
  • Get notification updates
    for your favorite subjects
Give feedback