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Anticipating ecological surprise: resilience, tipping points, early-warnings signals

By Vasilis Dakos

Appears in collection : Mathematical Population Dynamics, Ecology and Evolution 2023 / Mathématiques pour la Dynamique des population, l'Ecologie et l'Evolution

Evidence is increasing that large-scale abrupt changes in ecosystems, sheries, oceanic circulation patterns, or even human physiology are examples of catastrophic transitions between different system states. Such abrupt changes are typically referred to as tipping points. Recent theoretical findings suggest that distinct properties tend to rule system dynamics prior to tipping points. When quantified, these properties may be more generically used as indicators of resilience. As long-term data become increasingly available and experimental approaches are improving, the challenge has been to apply our theoretical metrics on ecological dynamics to anticipate, prepare, or navigate away from tipping points. In this talk, I will present how we can quantify resilience and detect tipping points highlighting examples from ecological and climate systems. Moreover, I will outline challenges and ideas on how we can operationalise such approaches and also how to better understand tipping point responses in a changing but evolving world.

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Citation data

  • DOI 10.24350/CIRM.V.20039903
  • Cite this video Dakos Vasilis (4/27/23). Anticipating ecological surprise: resilience, tipping points, early-warnings signals. CIRM. Audiovisual resource. DOI: 10.24350/CIRM.V.20039903
  • URL https://dx.doi.org/10.24350/CIRM.V.20039903

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