Moving towards cleaner technologies to combat resource depletion and environmental issues, understanding the supply and recycling of critical minerals, and their substitution are essential. The uneven distribution of these minerals creates major challenges, including dependency on certain sources and the risk of running out. This study looks into how these minerals are used andrecycled, furthermore, when their substitution should be introduced. We focus on the strategic decisions made by countries that export these resources and those that import them. We explore several key points: (1) Resource Options: Our findings show that markets can rely on new (virgin) minerals, recycled materials, or a mix of both to meet demand. Especially, the virgin resource and its substitutions may co-exist for a long time. (2) Exporting Strategies: When extracting new minerals becomes too costly, exporters might stop supplying them and rely entirely on recycling, especially as recycled materials become scarce. (3) Substitution: Surprisingly, the moment when the substitution should start to supply the market and the optimal supply are clear; while that is not the case of recycling who crucially depends on the virgin supply.

This research sheds light on the complex dynamics of mineral supply, recycling, and substitution, offering insights that can guide policy discussions on sustainable resource management.