Collection Nonlinear and stochastic methods in climate and geophysical fluid dynamics
Organisateur(s)
Date(s)
04/05/2024
Predictability of Extreme Climate Events via a Complex Network Approach
Complex networks are a powerful tool in many engineering and science fields. Here, we analyse climate dynamics from a complex network approach. This leads to an inverse problem: Is there a backbone-like structure underlying the climate system? For this, we propose a method to reconstruct and analyze a complex network from data generated by a spatio-temporal dynamical system. This approach enables us to uncover relations to global circulation patterns in oceans and the atmosphere.
This concept is then applied to Monsoon data; in particular, we develop a general framework to predict extreme events by combining a non-linear synchronization technique with complex networks. This way we analyze the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and identify two regions of high importance. By estimating an underlying critical point, this leads to a substantially improved prediction of the onset of the ISM by two weeks compared to the available method.
